Debugging 26/27 February Pak-Inida Standoff

 On this anniversary of February Standoff btetween India & Pakistan let us critically analyze the event & its implications On 26 Feb Indian Air force conducted Airstrikes inside Pakistan in Balakot, KPK.

Post71 was the first violation of mainland Pakistan Air space BJP spokesperson Ram Madhav's statement was critical where he said "we have reached the level of Israel". "Flag of India considering it Preemptive strikes viewed it as a major victory. Pakistan was bound to respond because this could have set a new trend/ a “new normal”, India's
convention superiority over Pakistan. Moreover, National integrity was at stake. The next day turned out to be a surprise day Pakistan decided to take on 3x bigger enemy.

“The Response will Come, At a Time & Place of Our Choosing “ . Air force. 

The next day on 27 Feb PAF carried out Retaliatory airstrikes targeting multiple targets (six) in J&K (Nadian, Laam Jhangar, Kerri in Rajouri District & Hamirpur area Poonch).

JF-17Thunder dropped SOW Bombs (Takbeer) while Mirages dropped H-4 bombs. IAF while chasing JF-17 & Mirages entered Pakistan's airspace where PAF F-16 Fighting Falcon using AMRAAM AIM-120C5 shot down 2x IAF jets(1x Mig-21 Bison & 1x Su-30MKI).

Mig-21 wreckage & Wing commander Abhinandan is enough don't need proof but India denied Su-30 being shot down during Dogfight. But India placed an order of 12 Su-30MKIs to replace the crashed airframes but official IAF data shows that only 11 Su-30MKIs (bharat-rakshak) had been crashed since its induction in 2002.

 What about the 12th one.

Interestingly IAF chief & officials themselves showed AMRAAM wreckage in a press conference to prove that they shot down PAF-16. So they only have missiles what about pilot & Jet? That means it was the one fired at Su-30. Here is the real story.

 If IAF had the upper hand why IAF felt the immediate induction of Rafale aircraft equipped with the Meteor beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile, procurement of the S-400 air defense missile system & integration of BrahMos with the Sukhois Su-30MKI soon after 27 Feb?

Hold on this is not the end We are about to launch Missiles.

-Intelligence- 

Not enough evidence to back the claim that the Indian Army chief was present when the PAF struct near Headquarters Nowshera area, Kashmir But India accepted that other senior commanders were present including Northern Army Commander Lt Gen. Ranbir Singh & 16 Corps Commander Lt Gen. Paramjit Singh in Brigade HQ Rajouri. Similarly, Pakistan Premier got the tip about possible Missile strikes on Wednesday Night at 9p.m (27 Feb 2019) & which helped to prepare eventually averting the attack Next day PM Imran khan announced the release of WC Abhinandan at 4:30 Pm (28 Feb, 19). Pm Khan again reaffirmed that Pakistan will respond & will fight till death like Tipu Sultan but would not surrender to Pressure by India & world powers. 

India claimed that Pakistan eleased WC Abhinandan on the pressure by India, probably feared about the Strike. Later used the statement by the former speaker National assembly of Pakistan Ayaz Sadiq. But Interestingly, Immediately after PM Imran khan Statement Indian media quoting India officials denied it calling the "Missile Threat" claim as “manufactured news” to create a “war psychosis".

 Not one but multiple Indian media outlets published the story. (Just took Screenshots I am damn sure Modi regime will force them to take these down).

The Wire (28/FEB/2019) 

“Indian government sources strenuously denied these claims, calling them “manufactured news” by Pakistan to create a “war psychosis”. 

ANI (28/FEB/2019)

Pakistan “was lying that India moved naval ships to launch missile strikes”.

 The Hindu (28/FEB/2019) 

The sources blamed a ‘war psychosis’ whipped up by Pakistan ..., with its officials warning the international community of a “massive Indian missile strike” in response to the Wednesday attacks by Pakistan, .....despite...govt ..not escalate...

Reuters (17/MARCH/2019) 

Reuters claimed, based on an unnamed Western diplomat and Pakistani minister, that India had threatened to fire at least six missiles. The news agency later stated that India had denied “holding out a missile threat”. Apart from that Why denied & only got brave after release? 

In fact "Indian Missile Threat" is a half story Pakistan will respond "three times" to that is the other half. Lastly even for the sake of argument if I buy the whole argument of India word by word then this is the scenario.

Jets Shot  

Pakistan - 1

India - 1

Evading air defense

Pakistan ✔️

India ✔️ 

Friendly Fire

India ✔️

Pakistan ❌

 

Missile Threat + Intl diplomatic pressure helped India release WC Abhinandan so this means after having all kinds of Intl diplomatic support, Israeli Military support- despite having 5x Defence budget,3x Military power India foiled to dominate Pakistan & only managed to free a pilot (after getting love from the public). Moreover, since 1987 India is working on Trident & Brasstacks military doctrine to outsmart Pakistan in conventional warfare & to capture Skardu, Gilgit & Northern Area via XV corps but India gearing up on escalation leader (Missile Threat) confirms that India poorly failed to dominate in Conventional Warfare & Brasstacks is not practical(Can only give Weather reports).

 Bottom line 

The land, air, naval & Intelligence confrontations on 26/27 established Pakistan's conventional deterrence while the aborted Indian missile strikes on the night 27/28 February confirmed Pakistan's nuclear deterrence.