Pak-India Negotiations (History, Present, Future)

5 Aug is the event that started a new chapter in the book of Indo-Pak relations. Now after two years of escalations both are signaling for normalizing ties. No sensible person would oppose peace but the question is on what grounds? But before that let me put it into context On 5 Aug India changed the legal status of Kashmir by revoking articles 370 & 35-A, removing the barrier in the way of changing Kashmir's demography. Now India is implementing"Israeli Model" in Kashmir in order to change the demography.

 Pakistan diplomatically launched an aggressive campaign inorder to tackle this move. PM Khan added reversing of these articles as a Pre-condition for Talks with India. Now if Pakistan backs off acks off from Pre-condition & enter into a peace deal it will have serious consequence.

1) Pakistan would be considered both by India & world powers as weak opponent & in future would be always forced to accept the Status Quo. (Particularly in terms of Palestine). This would establish India's superiority. 

2)Would damage Pakistan's influence in Azad Kashmir,will help separatism.

3) India would continue implementing the Israeli model in Kashmir, eventually, build an environment to legally win Kashmir.

4) Over the years, India used the "Shimla Agreement" in order to block Pakistan's move to Internationalize Kashmir, this unilateral move is against that. This has Provided Pakistan opportunity to pull out from Shimla & so that Kashmir can be Internationalize. With reapproach, this won't be happening. 

5) Demoralized Kashmiris will leave Pakistan sphere of influence & would join India, while some may get radicalized & join org like Al-Qaeda.

6) If it was supposed to end up like this why build an emotional Sand Castle on a weak Strategy, for which Pakistan paid a heavy price. Why went after GCC & OIC? 

That "With or Without you"? 

Despite all of this if Pakistan gives India leverage, it would be counter-productive for Pakistan in Afghanistan as well as in Kashmir. Another important point that should be taken into account is the fact that when India talks about Terror it refers to the resistance in Disputed Kashmir while for Pakistan it's an existential threat on the mainland both are different, India tries to connect both. 

Options for Pakistan (Post 5th August)

(Way forward)

 Post-5-Aug, I talked/listened/read my diplomats, analysts & experts I came to the conclusion that Pakistan mishandled the case. From the start was clueless & still are reluctant to design a conclusive aggressive policy on Kashmir. 

- Pull out from Shimla Agreement, as it is of no value for Pakistan.

- Call for UN demographic mapping of the J&K in order to block the implementation of the "Israeli Model".

- Open a government in exile representing the Kashmir.  

- Establish a joint Pak-China desk on Kashmir

Dozens of other actions can be taken. Also this idea of "Pacifism" poorly failed in these two years, not a single country (European) changed its stance because of this. Maybe switch to Neo-Realism.

"War is an undesirable option but would be the last resort "

This pacifism helped to avoid a major conflict in Feb, but because of this Pakistan will be fighting the war for Srinagar in Muzzafrabad.