Security Crisis and turmoil in Afghanistan

The next few months are going to be very significant & would decide the fate of Afghanistan. Taliban have intensified attacks before the beginning of the Winter. These attacks are meant to show who runs the business in Afghanistan. 

 

They are slowly encircling major cities including provincial capitals. If the deadlock in the Intra Afghan talks continues, in Winter the Taliban will launch a major offense. Taliban will intensity attacks across the country & might start targeting Afgh govt officials.

  

Hundreds of fighters are moving from rural to the outstrikes of urban cities. Encircling the cities On the list.

• Kunduz 
• Khost 
• Faryab 
• Helmed 
• Paktia 
• Ghazni 
• Wardak 
• Herat

 

The Strategy is simple & clear:

• Encircle major cities including Provincial Capitals 
• Take control of Major highways 
• Go for the capture 
• Cut the supply lines 

But I think in the final phase Taliban can deploy the Red Units for high-value targets including high ranking govt officials, key strategic installations like Airbases, govt buildings, militias leaders. But the key factor is that Post US withdrawal, In Sep ANA forces won't have the vital US close air support. It would be difficult for Govt forces to send reinforcement especially in the North where it would be harsh weather, plus with the Taliban controlling the major highways. For that Govt is already building up local militias to support ANA. Moreover, the Kabul govt is avoiding deploying Special forces (SOF), would be deployed in case. 

aliban manage to take over major provincial capitals or key installations. Paktia & Khost are going to be on the top of the Taliban hit list, where they will take on CIA, backed militia. Another major challenge would be the Internally displaced people (IDP's)/ refugees, with the war intensifying in winter it would be difficult to maintain the supply chain-providing food, shelter & medical aid to thousands of Afghans, for that Afghan govt must engage the UN, allies especially US to provide financial support to deal with the crisis.