Strategic Depth Myth

The phrase ‘Strategic Depth’ is often repeated by scholars whenever Pakistan's policy on Afghanistan is discussed. But can Afghanistan provide Pakistan a ‘strategic depth’ in case of a war with India? Has Pakistan sought strategic depth or stability?  

 

The idea of seeking strategic depth in Afghanistan makes absolutely no military sense for Pakistan. Pakistan is the 36th largest country in the world in terms of land and area but it has geographical vulnerabilities. It is so narrow at one point that an Indian advance of 300-400 kilometers — which is also the range of Indian tanks prior to refuelling — could effectively cut the country and it's forces in half. Furthermore, Pakistan's lines of communication and especially the highway that runs between Lahore and Karachi is perpendicular to a probable Indian advance and could be severely severed if Indian forces gain ground. Many of Pakistan's major population centers like Lahore and Sialkot lie within the striking distance of the border. Pakistan military operates on interior lines and has developed a ‘Riposte’ strategy as per which the striking formations are likely to push deep into the Indian territory while the other formations would hold back the Indian advance. India's proactive operations strategy and Pakistan's new concept of warfare further envisages the future war to be in a time constraint environment within the nuclear threshold. So the idea of a counter attack by using Afghanistan as a pivot of manoevure in case Pakistan loses strategic ground has never been a part of Pakistan's military doctrine. Also the ethnic mix of ungoverned and autonomous populations that inhibit both sides of Durand Line turns it into a buffer that would deter any conventional maneuvering in a military offensive. 

In the four Indo Pak wars, India has failed to exploit Pakistan's geographical vulnerabilities despite the numerical superiority. India's 1.3 million men are over twice the size of Pakistan's 617,000 strong armed forces. India was the world's third biggest military spender in 2020. Also it has deployed 10 out of it's 14 corps exclusively for Pakistan. From the Pakistan's perspective, India remains indisputably it's primary threat. General Ashfaq Pervev Kayani said in 2010, “We plan on adversaries’ capabilities, not intentions”. It was in response to the US plea that Pakistan should move some of its formations toward the west. Now coming back to the subject under discussion, if Afghanistan cannot provide Pakistan the strategic depth militarily? Then what are the actual connotations of a strategic depth?

General Kayani explained it in his famous 14 page document "Pakistan's Perspective" which he handed over to President Obama in Oct 2010 during the US-Pakistan strategic dialogue. Kayani wrote:

For Pakistan, the outcome of the war in Afghanistan is a matter of life and death. There is a direct linkage between the stability and future of Afghanistan and Pakistan. It cannot therefore wish for anything other than what it wishes for itself. A peaceful, stable and friendly Afghanistan provides us the strategic depth - a concept that is totally misunderstood”.

It took Obama three months to answer Kayani's document.

Pakistan has only sought strategic stability and peace in Afghanistan for the benefit of the region as a whole. It's the only player whose stance has remained consistent in the last two decades of the US war in Afghanistan. Following are some of the important policy statements:

When the then DG ISI met Pentagon officials before the US invasion of Afghanistan on Sept 24, 2001. He said:

“You need the help of the Afghan people. I beg you—I implore you—not to fire a shot in anger. It will set us all back many years. Don’t let the blood rush to your head”

During his visit to the US in Sept 2006, President Musharraf proposed a grand jirga to seek a political solution by bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table through a non partisan third party because military effort will fail. It was rejected but his stance was prescient. Pakistan has remained a safe haven for Afghan Refugees.

1. Nearly 6 million Afghans—roughly two-fifths of the country’s population—fled to Iran or Pakistan from 1979 to 1989. 

2. According to Amnesty International, Pakistan is ranked 4th among top 10 refugee hosting countries.

3. Pakistan is offering 3000 scholarships to Afghan youth in Medicine, Engineering, Agriculture and CS. 

4. President Ghani lived in Pakistan for 19 months. Amrullah Saleh studied in Islamabad back in 1992 under a course titled “Post Conflict Reconstruction and Management” 

Reference: 

1. “An Introduction to Pakistan's Military” by Francisco Aguilar, Randy Bell, Natalie, Sayce Falk, Sasha Rogers Aki Peritz. Harvard Kennedy School, 2011 

2. “Directorate S” by Steve Coll 

3. “The Battle for Pakistan” by Shuja Nawaz