TLP-Govt Agreement

 TLP-Govt agreement explained from a security perspective:

• Pakistan Military's role 

• Afghanistan factor 

• Sad reality of Pakistan 

• Short & long term security

 

A negotiated agreement between TLP & the Government was necessary- Pakistan Military facilitated this. Do read this nice summary of the various components in the TLP-Govt agreement: 

1. TLP has given up its demand for the French ambassador's expulsion 

2. The Govt will take back the decision to declare TLP as a proscribed group 

3. TLP will be allowed to join politics in an effort to mainstream it.  

4. The government will not take action against the TLP activists participating in the protest. 

5. TLP’s workers involved in serious crimes will have to gain concessions from the courts. 

6. TLP will end its protest after the government has fulfilled 50 percent of the agreement. 

7. In the future, the TLP will avoid taking to the streets in the form of a long march or a sit-in. 

It's possible to understand both: 

1) TLP & like minded people are real part of Pakistani society 

2) TLP are an extremist group You can't ignore either, but you can find ways to manage that in the best possible way. 

So, whether Pakistanis want to accept it or not, TLP are the major political representatives of a large portion of Pakistan's religious society. It's easy to say "declare them banned/terrorist", without considering the consequences. In fact, acceptance that extremist views are an ordinary part of society is part of the narrative used to justify the legitimisation of Taliban's "Islamic Emirate". Should that then not apply to TLP in Pakistan?

It should be noted that both PM Khan's fanning the flames of extremism & constant u-turns on promises have lead to an unnecessarily large issue with TLP- though making the right u-turns would have been understandable.

Pakistanis: Don't be so easy to say "hard action" & don't wish for a bloodbath of your own people, even if you don't agree with them. We have had enough of this. Think smartly & avoid a crisis that outweighs the benefits of violent gratification.

STORM IN AFGHANISTAN? 

Whether or not Pakistanis think TTP peace talks are going nicely, Pakistan is potentially facing a warlike situation from Afghanistan. Pakistan must avoid any situation where they are facing both Afghanistan based terror & complex internal extremism.   

Pakistan Military have pressing security concerns & do not want TLP extremism OR Imran Khan's interference- these would be disastrous. Hypothetically, if Pak Military knew they had to put a buffer zone in Afghanistan, they wouldn't want the anxiety of having a rampant TLP in Pakistan, whose views of shari'ah are not much different to TTP & Noor Wali Mehsud's- this kind of situation needs to be resolved smoothly.

MILITARY STEPS IN? 

I said to friends "don't rule out military intervention- direct or indirect". Religious leaders & GoP knew fully Pak Military can step in, both ways. Agreement was announced almost immediately after Military spoke to religious leaders in Pakistan. Military would have conveyed to TLP & Ulema nicely that "You can protest, but if you become a national security threat, we can deal with you as we wish". But they also know Military wanted political leverage, so they both extracted something they wanted. Military has recently been demonstrating to PM Khan "we're in charge of anything that affects the country's security, not you". Their determination on these issues was proven by the DG ISI situation, talk of US Airspace access & more. Both TLP & GoP knew that a crackdown couldn't happen without Military backing Khan on this issue. Military showed their political clout- so both sides were open minded to Military's ideas here- they were forced to be. This is why a negotiated settlement happened so smoothly. 

It's important to understand why Pakistan Military may have had desire for a negotiated settlement between TLP & PTI: 

1) Pakistan Military wrestles back desired political leverage:

They need this, as without government support, they can't undertake critical immediate national security objectives, e.g Afghanistan- where PM Khan opposed Gen. Bajwa.

2) Stopped a potential disturbance that would threaten national security:

It's impossible to secure vital national security objectives smoothly if Pakistan's own internal situation is on fire.

For this reason, "cut some slack" for Pakistan's Military dealing with TLP, as they have some understanding that there are immediate security concerns that must be addressed, which have long term consequences if things don't start going well- they had to play certain cards. But don't discern from this that TLP situation was manufactured by Pakistan's Military- it wasn't. It was a situation PTI themselves created, was looming & so Pakistan Military may have rightfully taken advantage.

ES, GoP backtracked, but that's fine- politics/nat sec aren't straight line. YES, Counter extremism is necessary, but that doesn't mean critical, pressing security objectives must be made more difficult by domestic situations TLP is a lesser evil- FOR NOW... Not the end of it.

You have to accept that Pakistan isn't a country that can simply wish away extremist demands- that is what Pakistan is. The correct mindset is one that helps find the best ways to navigate around this, with long and short term objectives & security in mind.